6 INs, 8 OUTs: Real Madrid transfer round-up with probability ratings
A summer of big decisions awaits at the Bernabeu.
With only three La Liga matches left this season, it's time to turn attention to the summer. Here’s a look at the latest transfer rumours at Real Madrid.
INs
Trent Alexander-Arnold – 100%
The Englishman has officially announced his departure from Liverpool at the end of the season, having already bid farewell to the Anfield faithful. A move to Madrid now looks like a matter of when, not if — with the Club World Cup possibly being his first stage in white.
Nico Paz – 70%
After a standout season in Serie A, the young midfielder has impressed Madrid’s board. If either Luka Modric or Dani Ceballos leaves this summer, Paz is expected to return. A buy-back clause makes the deal both simple and cost-effective.
Alvaro Carreras – 70%
A return to Madrid could be on the cards for the former academy player, who is now seen as the top choice to reinforce the left-back position — one of the club’s main priorities this summer.
Dean Huijsen – 70%
Madrid are on the lookout for a top-class centre-back, and the Spanish defender is among their top targets. However, the race for the defender is fierce, with several Premier League clubs also chasing his signature.
William Saliba – 50%
Seen as the club’s Plan B for central defence if Huijsen proves unattainable. The Arsenal star fits the profile, but no concrete progress has been made just yet.
Florian Wirtz – 40%
The German playmaker has been linked with a move to Santiago Bernabeu for some time — even more so now with Bayer Leverkusen’s Xabi Alonso expected to head to Spain this summer. Wirtz, however, is reportedly leaning toward Bayern, making this one uncertain.
OUTs
Lucas Vazquez – 100%
Fabrizio Romano has already confirmed it — the veteran is set to leave the club at the end of the season.
Jesus Vallejo – 100%
The centre-back’s contract expires in June, and there's no intention to extend it. A quiet but inevitable goodbye.
Ferland Mendy – 70%
After a string of injuries, Madrid are reportedly ready to part ways with the Frenchman. With a potential replacement already lined up, this one feels quite likely.
Rodrygo – 70%
The Brazilian is reportedly unhappy with his role in the squad. With Premier League clubs showing strong interest in the winger, Madrid could be tempted to cash in to help fund other summer targets.
Dani Ceballos – 50%
Ceballos pushed hard to leave last summer due to limited playing time. While his minutes have improved this season, a departure is still very much on the table — especially with Nico Paz potentially returning.
Luka Modric – 50%
The Croatian legend’s future remains up in the air. Some reports claim he’ll leave in the summer, while others suggest he may extend for one more year — especially with Xabi Alonso keen to keep him in the squad.
David Alaba – 50%
The Austrian defender has spent more time in the treatment room than on the pitch this season due to a string of unfortunate injuries. Add to that his status as one of the squad’s highest earners, and it’s no surprise the board is reconsidering his future at the club.
Vinicius Junior – 20%
Saudi clubs have been throwing astronomical offers Madrid’s way for years now. While selling one of the team’s biggest stars still feels unthinkable, you can never say never in football.
