21 ins, 18 outs: latest Arsenal transfer round-up with probability ratings

21 ins, 18 outs: latest Arsenal transfer round-up with probability ratings


The Gunners need reinforcements in 5 positions, although some of it will depend on who leaves the club. So we'll break down possible arrivals by on-pitch areas. We'll add probability of joining at the end.


Arsenal are reportedly on the lookout for a new goalie - it's yet unclear whether he will provide backup to Bernd Leno or replace the German shot-stopper. 4 names have been linked:

Unai Simon (from Athletic Bilbao). This one is surely considered a Leno replacement, because he's just 23, therefore represents a long-term solution. The problem would be his price tag - something around £27m - but his contract runs until 2025, so it can be considerably higher. Probability: 2/10

David Raya (from Brentford) linked endlessly with Arsenal last summer, he's just signed a new deal. His contract is until 2024, although Transfermarkt values him considerably lower than Simon - at just £10m. At 25, he'd also likely be a Leno replacement. Probability: 3/10

Mathew Ryan (from Brighton). This one is surely in the "grizzled veteran" category, despite being "just" 29. He's not wanted at Brighton, loves Arsenal and won't cost much. Can totally see it happening. Probability: 8/10

Andre Onana (from Ajax). A very interesting option for the Gunners. The Cameroonian was on fire in Ajax's 2018–19 Champions League run. He is currently banned for doping though, and that could make him available on cut price. Probability: 4/10


David Luiz is always certain to depart and these central defenders have been linked with a move to the club.

Tosin Adarabioyo (from Fulham). The 23-year-old got relegated with the Cottagers and is looking to stay in the Premier League. As per The Athletic, Arteta knows him well because Tosin played under him at Man City. Probability: 3/10

Joachim Andersen (from Lyon): the Dane has impressed in the Premier League this season on loan at Fulham. He looks like the Arteta type of a centre-back—good in the air, good with the ball at his feet. Nothing serious at the moment though. Probability: 2/10


Hector Bellerin is close to leaving and we've seen 3 right-backs linked:

Max Aarons (from Norwich): back into the Premier League with the Canaries, he's considered one of the most promising right-backs at just 21 years of age. He has 3 years on his deal and will probably cost upwards of £20m. Would be a tough transfer to complete. Probability: 4/10

Tariq Lamptey (from Brighton): another possible Bellerin replacement. Another long-term deal (until 2025) and a hefty price tag (around £16m at least). Been linked with Bayern Munich. Much less likely to join us over them. Probability: 3/10

Achraf Hakimi (from Inter): branded 'Arteta's personal favourite' Hakimi just won the league title with Inter. The most expensive of the lot at £45m. Arteta might love him as much as we love cookies - he's not getting him. Probability: 1/10


Only one name has been linked: Ryan Bertrand. He's 32, out of contract this summer and will provide experienced back-up to indisputable first choice Kieran Tierney. Plus, he's another fullback from Southampton. What's not to like? Probability: 7/10

Central midfield

Our most understaffed place with so many futures uncertain among current Arsenal players. These 4 names have been touted:

Yves Bissouma (from Brighton): some sources go as far as to state the deal is in place and he'll be our player next season. He's certainly an impressive midfield dynamo and can plug our midfield hole for years at 24. Probability: 6/10

Sander Berge (from Sheffield): the Blades are going down and might need to rescue themselves by offloading some of their high earners. Arteta's assistant coach Albert Stuivenberg has links with Berge, although we are yet to see anything to suggest Arsenal are interested. Probability: 3/10

Eduardo Camavinga (from Rennes): the wonderkid can cherry-pick his next club as every side in Europe would love to have him. The 18-year-old is said to be keen on a Premier League move and wants a guaranteed first-team spot, something neither Real Madrid nor Bayern Munich can provide—while Arsenal can. Probability: 2/10

Aaron Ramsey (from Juventus): the Welshman is said to be transfer-listed by Juve, and he would happily leave the club after struggling there for two years. He would like to return to Arsenal, as per Fabrizio Romano, but we don't know whether Arsenal are interested. Probability: 5/10


Emile Smith Rowe can't play every three days so we need someone to else to provide creativity. These names have been linked:

Houssem Aouar (from Lyon): the Frenchman's price has reportedly dropped after a poor season. We're not sure Aouar would go to Arsenal after rejecting the Gunners last season though. Probability: 5/10

Julian Brandt (from Dortmund): We can't imagine a transfer window without Julian Brandt rumours for Arsenal, and this window is not an exception. Bernd Leno is playing agent already. Probability: 5/10

Martin Odegaard (from Real Madrid): Arsenal had a trial run of Norwegian's qualities, and seem to be willing to extend his stay beyond this season. Everything depends on Madrid and Ode himself now as it's not clear whether the Whites would be interested in selling and Martin would be keen on not playing in Europe next season. Probability: 7/10

Nabil Fekir (from Betis): the 28-year-old has fired Betis to the 6th spot in La Liga. The Frenchman adds dynamism and creativity and has been tracked by Arsenal for several years now. Apparently wants to leave Betis as at 28 years of age, he either makes the step to the elite level now or never makes it. Probability: 3/10


3 players have been linked as possible reinforcement to our struggling front line.

Odsonne Edouard (from Celtic): heavily linked since last summer, his deal is up next season and Celtic failed to win their 10th straight title and are undergoing a managerial change. He's young (23) and will cost around £13m, according to Transfermarkt. Probability: 4/10

Moussa Dembele (from Lyon): we honestly cannot remember many links with him. Currently flopping big time at Atletico Madrid. Just 24 and 2 years left on contract though. Probability: 2/10

Ousmane Dembele (from Barcelona): 10 injuries and just 80 league appearances in 4 years at Barca. The Catalans could have just burned the €145m they spent on landing the Frenchman in 2017, the effect would have been quite similar. He is said to be available for €50m now, with a host of English clubs linked. Probability: 3/10


Oof. It'd probably be easier to list those who'll definitely stay. But we don't do things the easy way. Once again we'll go by on-pitch positions, just less specific this time around. We'll add probability of leaving at the end.


Depending on who you trust, all 3 of our goalies (Leno, Ryan, Runarsson) might be off. We tend to think Leno will stay though, Ryan's move will be made permanent and we'll solve this particular issue next summer - if there's a need for it then. Right now there are enough holes to fill without thinking about the position between the sticks.

  • Bernd Leno: probability: 3/10
  • Mat Ryan: probability: 3/10
  • Alex Runarsson: probability: 9/10 (has not even made the squad since December, barring an odd game)


Hector Bellerin: as good as off. Reported by multiple top sources. Thanks for the memories, Heccy. Probability: 9/10

David Luiz: multiple sources have confirmed he won't extend his contract. Probability: 9/10

Dinos Mavropanos: a forgotten man out on loan. Likely to stay in Stuttgart beyond this season but we can see Arteta checking him out during pre-season. Probability: 7/10

Sead Kolasinac: he's still our player, yes. Given his wages, we might have difficulties shipping him off. We can see the club just paying him to leave, as they did with Ozil and Mustafi. Probability: 9/10


God, have mercy on us all. The only player certain to stay is Thomas Partey. Everyone else is likely to leave - and that fills us with dread in terms of sheer numbers.

Matteo Guendouzi: out of favour with Arteta. He's out, question is in which direction. Marseille are linked. Probability: 10/10

Lucas Torreira: wants to return to South America, has been vocal about it. Not fancied by Arteta either. Deadman walking, as much as we like him. Probability: 9/10

Ainsley Maitland-Niles: not much game time at Arsenal this season, went to West Brom only to play in central midfield. Arteta won't appreciate this gesture most likely. He's off. Probability: 9/10

Mohamed Elneny: you know what you are getting with him - and it's not that much. Hard-working and a decent squad option though. Might stick around for some squad depth. Probability: 5/10

Joe Willock: he's a youngster out on loan, spoken more favourably about by Arteta than some of our other loanees. We are hoping sense is shown by retaining him but we are not sure sense and Arsenal go hand in hand. Newcastle are very keen on signing him, and a figure of £20m has been quoted. Probability: 6/10

Dani Ceballos: Romano confirmed we won't extend his loan. Back to Real Madrid he'll go and then probably to some place like Celta or Cadiz. Probability: 10/10

Granit Xhaka: Perhaps the most surprising potential departure as the Swiss has become one of the team's most important and consistent performers under Arteta. As per The Athletic, Arsenal players think the former captain will leave the club. Probability: 4/10


Reiss Nelson: the lad is just not getting minutes for some reason. We can't wrap our heads around it but can't see him staying under those circumstances. No rumours linking him with an exit yet but we believe it's a matter of time. Probability: 8/10

Willian: as per Fabrizio Romano, Willy is 'expected' to wave goodbye to Arsenal this summer. Good riddance. Probability: 4/10

Eddie Nketiah: one year left on deal, getting very few minutes and Folarin Balogun also extended. It's over for Eddie, sadly. West Ham has been touted as a possible destination. Probability: 8/10

Alex Lacazette: One year left on deal and repeated non-committal comments from Arteta. Roma, Lyon and Atletico apparently in the mix for him. We won't be surprised to see him go. Probability: 7/10

AuthorAleksei BlokhinSourceTribuna.com