18 players tracked, 14 linked with exit: latest Arsenal transfer round-up with probability ratings

18 players tracked, 14 linked with exit: latest Arsenal transfer round-up with probability ratings


The Gunners need to reinforce the squad in the summer and Mikel Arteta has said Kronke will back him in the market. It's not yet clear how much money the recruitment department will get.

Whatever is Kroenke's chunk in the transfer kitty, Arsenal will have to raise money through selling players. Let's look at what we know about potential outgoings and incoming. We'll add the probability of joining at the end.


We need a back keeper and there's no certainty over Leno's future.

David Raya (from Brentford) linked endlessly with Arsenal last summer, he's just signed a new deal. His contract is until 2024 and Transfermarkt value him at just £10m. Probability: 3/10

Mathew Ryan (from Brighton). This one is surely in the "grizzled veteran" category, despite being "just" 29. He's not wanted at Brighton, loves Arsenal and won't cost much. Can totally see it happening. The keeper has already expressed his desire to extend his stay. Probability: 8/10

Andre Onana (from Ajax). A very interesting option for the Gunners. The Cameroonian was on fire in Ajax's 2018–19 Champions League run. He is currently banned for doping though, and that could make him available at a cut price. Probability: 3/10


William Saliba counts as an incoming transfer since he hasn't played a single official game for Arsenal yet and will be deemed as a fresh signing. Probability: 10/10


Hector Bellerin is close to leaving and we've seen 3 right-backs linked:

Max Aarons (from Norwich): back into the Premier League with the Canaries, he's considered one of the most promising right-backs at just 21 years of age. He has 3 years on his deal and will probably cost upwards of £20m. Would be a tough transfer to complete. Probability: 4/10

Tariq Lamptey (from Brighton): another possible Bellerin replacement. Another long-term deal (until 2025) and a hefty price tag (around £16m at least). Been linked with Bayern Munich. Much less likely to join us over them. Probability: 3/10

Achraf Hakimi (from Inter): branded 'Arteta's personal favourite' Hakimi just won the league title with Inter. The most expensive of the lot at £45m. Arteta might love him as much as we love cookies - he's not getting him. Probability: 1/10


Ryan Bertrand. He's 32, out of contract this summer and will provide experienced back-up to indisputable first choice Kieran Tierney. Plus, he's another fullback from Southampton. We expect some other targets to emerge but for now, he's the only one linked. Probability: 5/10

Central midfield

Our most understaffed place with so many futures uncertain among current Arsenal players. These 4 names have been touted:

Yves Bissouma (from Brighton): some sources go as far as to state the deal is in place and he'll be our player next season. He's certainly an impressive midfield dynamo and can plug our midfield hole for years at 24. Probability: 6/10

Sander Berge (from Sheffield): the Blades are going down and might need to rescue themselves by offloading some of their high earners. Arteta's assistant coach Albert Stuivenberg has links with Berge, although we are yet to see anything to suggest Arsenal are interested. Probability: 3/10

Eduardo Camavinga (from Rennes): the wonderkid can cherry-pick his next club as every side in Europe would love to have him. The 18-year-old is said to be keen on a Premier League move and wants a guaranteed first-team spot, something neither Real Madrid nor Bayern Munich can provide—while Arsenal can. Probability: 2/10

Aaron Ramsey (from Juventus): the Welshman is said to be transfer-listed by Juve, and he would happily leave the club after struggling there for two years. He would like to return to Arsenal, as per Fabrizio Romano, but we don't know whether Arsenal are interested. Probability: 2/10


Emile Smith Rowe can't play every three days so we need someone else to provide creativity. These names have been linked:

Houssem Aouar (from Lyon): the Frenchman's price has reportedly dropped after a poor season. We're not sure Aouar would go to Arsenal after rejecting the Gunners last season though. Probability: 3/10

Julian Brandt (from Dortmund): We can't imagine a transfer window without Julian Brandt rumours for Arsenal, and this window is not an exception. Bernd Leno is playing agent already. Probability: 3/10

Martin Odegaard (from Real Madrid): Arsenal had a trial run of Norwegian's qualities, and seem to be willing to extend his stay beyond this season. Everything depends on Madrid and Ode himself now as it's not clear whether the Whites would be interested in selling and Martin would be keen on not playing in Europe next season. Probability: 7/10

Nabil Fekir (from Betis): the 28-year-old has fired Betis to the 6th spot in La Liga. The Frenchman adds dynamism and creativity and has been tracked by Arsenal for several years now. Apparently wants to leave Betis as at 28 years of age, he either makes the step to the elite level now or never makes it. Probability: 1/10

Emiliano Buendia (from Norwich): one of the best players in the Championship this season. Arsenal have reportedly ramped up attempts to sign him as an alternative to Odegaard. However, his contract runs for 3 further years and Norwich hardly need the money now that they are back up. He's believed to be a priority target for Arsenal if Odegaard stays at Madrid. Probability: 7/10


Arsenal seem to be well-equipped in the forward department and signings are only likely to be made if one of the first-choice options leaves.

Odsonne Edouard (from Celtic): heavily linked since last summer, his deal is up next season and Celtic failed to win their 10th straight title and are undergoing a managerial change. He's young (23) and will cost around £13m, according to Transfermarkt. Probability: 4/10


It's tough to predict who will stay and who will leave but there will certainly be major squad changes. Let's try to assess the probability of a summer exit for certain players.


Bernd Leno: he said he's open to a fresh challenge but at the same time he's happy at Arsenal. It doesn't look as if the Gunners were planning to sell him. Probability: 2/10

Alex Runarsson: either on loan or permanently but for sure he has to be moved. Probability: 9/10 (has not even made the squad since December, barring an odd game)


Hector Bellerin: as good as off. Reported by multiple top sources. Thanks for the memories, Heccy. Probability: 9/10

Dinos Mavropanos: a forgotten man out on loan. Likely to stay in Stuttgart beyond this season but we can see Arteta checking him out during pre-season. Probability: 7/10

Sead Kolasinac: he's still our player, yes. Given his wages, we might have difficulties shipping him off. We can see the club just paying him to leave, as they did with Ozil and Mustafi. Probability: 9/10


God, have mercy on us all. The only player certain to stay is Thomas Partey. Everyone else is likely to leave - and that fills us with dread in terms of sheer numbers.

Matteo Guendouzi: out of favour with Arteta. He's out, the question is in which direction. Marseille are being linked. Probability: 9/10

Lucas Torreira: wants to return to South America, has been vocal about it. Not fancied by Arteta either. Dead man walking, as much as we like him. Probability: 9/10

Ainsley Maitland-Niles: not much game time at Arsenal this season, went to West Brom only to play in central midfield. Arteta won't appreciate this gesture most likely. He's off. Probability: 9/10

Mohamed Elneny: you know what you are getting with him - and it's not that much. Hard-working and a decent squad option though. Might stick around for some squad depth. Probability: 5/10

Joe Willock: tough to guess what is going to happen here. Impressive on loan, Newcastle want to keep him and are trying to put the cash together. Arteta said Joe will be back at Arsenal for pre-season though. Probability: 5/10

Granit Xhaka: Perhaps the most surprising potential departure as the Swiss has become one of the team's most important and consistent performers under Arteta. As per The Athletic, Arsenal players think the former captain will leave the club. Probability: 3/10


Willian: as per Fabrizio Romano, Willy is 'expected' to wave goodbye to Arsenal this summer. Good riddance. Probability: 8/10

Eddie Nketiah: one year left on deal, getting very few minutes and Folarin Balogun also extended. It's over for Eddie, sadly. West Ham has been touted as a possible destination. Probability: 7/10

Alex Lacazette: One year left on deal and repeated non-committal comments from Arteta. Roma, Lyon and Atletico apparently in the mix for him. We won't be surprised to see him go. Probability: 7/10

AuthorEvgeniy KozhemiakoSourceTribuna