€40m bid for Locatelli, Ligue 1 winner to replace Bellerin: latest Arsenal transfer round-up with probability rankings

€40m bid for Locatelli, Ligue 1 winner to replace Bellerin: latest Arsenal transfer round-up with probability rankings

The transfer window is officially open but Arsenal have not been particularly active in terms of signing and selling players.

However, a lot of rumours about potential arrivals and departures are floating around.

Note that the club has already confirmed David Luiz, Martin Odegaard, Daniel Ceballos and Mat Ryan will be released on contract expiry.


Bernd Leno. Publicly stated he does not want to leave the club but rumours about Arsenal looking for a new goalie mean that the German could part ways with the Gunners. Probability of leaving: 1/10

Sead Kolasinac. Not in Arteta's plans but no contenders for the Bosnian have been reported. Probability: 8/10

Dinos Mavropanos. Stuttgart want to extend his loan, Arsenal's stance is unknown. We hope Arteta gives him a chance in the pre-season—the Greek centre-back really impressed in the Bundesliga last season. Probability: 6/10

William Saliba. Will return to Arsenal for the pre-season and will be assessed by Arteta. Could be loaned out again if still deemed not good enough for first-team football. Probability (of leaving on loan): 3/10

Hector Bellerin. As good as gone. Linked with Betis, Atletico Madrid, Villarreal and Sevilla. Arsenal apparently want £20m for him. Probability: 9/10

Granit Xhaka. Expected to join AS Roma in the next few weeks. The Italians are haggling over the price but a £15-18m offer should convince Arsenal to sell. Probability: 9/10

Matteo Guendouzi. It's curtains for the curly-haired Frenchman at Arsenal. Marseille seem ready to pay €15m for the midfielder, we only hope the Gunners include a sell-on clause in case Douzi finally comes good. Probability: 9/10

Ainsley Maitland-Niles. Even Ains himself does not know what Arsenal's plans for him are. He said he would like to stay but is open to leaving the club. The latter looks more probable at this point but we can see him returning and fighting for a first-team spot—after all, he played his best football under Arteta last summer. Probability: 6/10

Lucas Torreira. No recent updates on the midfield enforcer but Lucas is extremely likely to wave goodbye to Arsenal after going public with his desire to play for Boca. Probability: 8/10

Joe Willock. Newcastle love him but so does Mikel Arteta. Will probably be given a chance in the pre-season and kept or shifted depending on how he performs there. Probability: 5/10

Willian Borges. Reportedly keen on leaving Arsenal after an extremely disappointing season. MLS has been named as a destination, and Arsenal could even get a fee for the Brazilian. Probability: 8/10

Eddie Nketiah. The striker's contract is up in 2022 and Arsenal want to sell him for £20m. The Gunners are unlikely to receive such a generous offer though, so they want to renew his deal, loan him out for a year and then sell. Sounds like a good plan but Eddie might not be very keen on extending his stay with Arsenal. West Ham, Watford, Crystal Palace and Bayer Leverkusen are interested in the Hale End graduate. Probability: 5/10

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Auba had a poor campaign but Arsenal still keep faith in their captain. However, the Gabonese is no longer untouchable—should a good offer arrive, the Gunners would accept it. No one has shown interest in Auba though. Probability: 5/10



Andre Onana. The keeper had his doping bad reduced so he'll be available to play from November. Arsenal are eyeing him on a cut-price (below €10m) deal, and there is a good chance he'll join the Gunners this summer. Probability (of moving to Arsenal): 8/10

Mat Ryan. The Australian left a good impression during his few months at Arsenal. It would make a lot of sense to bring him back a second-choice goalie but there have been no updates on the Gunners' pursuit of Mathew in the last few weeks. Probability: 3/10


Tyler Adams. RB Leipzig do not want to part ways with their right-back and it's unknown whether Arsenal are planning to test their resolve with an official bid. He fits the profile of a right-back Mikel Arteta wants though. Probability: 5/10

Mehmed Zeki Celik. Arsenal seem to have a penchant for Lille players. After landing Pepe and Gabriel, they reportedly want right-back Zeki Celik to the squad. For the quoted €13m price, it's a steal: the Turkish seems to be an all-round full-back the Gunners need. Probability: 6/10

Noussair Mazraoui. The Ajax right-back impressed in the Champions League group stage, averaging 8.3 progressive passes per game, 18.49 pressures and 3.96 tackles per 90. Arsenal are said to be tracking the Moroccan. Probability: 2/10


It's somewhat counter-intuitive because Arsenal had a good defensive record in the 2020–21 campaign, but the Gunners want a new centre-back. These names have popped up recently.

Ben White. Brighton would consider selling the England international for £40–50m. We're not sure if we really need him but Arsenal seem very interested. Probability: 7/10

Joachim Andersen. Could be a cheaper alternative to White. Probability: 3/10


Josh Doig. The links have gone somewhat quiet now but a young Scottish left-back could be an understudy to Kieran Tierney. A fee of £5m has been cited. Probability: 4/10


Ruben Neves. A younger Granit Xhaka in terms of profile and skillset. Wolves are likely to accept a £35m offer if it arrives. Probability: 6/10

Yves Bissouma. His agent is dropping Arsenal hints everywhere and the Gunners' interest has been reported but we have not seen any updates in the past couple of weeks. Probability: 3/10

Albert Sambi Lokonga. An energetic midfielder in the Partey mould, Lokonga has recently appeared on the radar. He would cost less than Bissouma and Neves but the question is whether he is as good as they are. Probability: 4/10

Manuel Locatelli. Arsenal are reportedly preparing a €40m offer for the exciting Sassuolo midfielder. His mind is said to be set on Juventus though. Probability: 4/10

Martin Odegaard. The priority target, as per several credible sources. There is one person who'll decide Ode's future, and his name is Carlo Ancelotti. If he decides he doesn't need the Norwegian, he goes to Arsenal; if he promises Ode another chance at Madrid, he'll probably stay there. Probability: 5/10


Arsenal want to give more first-team minutes to Martinelli and Balogun (and Nketiah if he stays) so they do not want to sign a new striker to block their path.

However, Odsonne Edouard has been linked with a move to the Emirates. But Arsenal have reservations about the Frenchman and as things stand, he is more likely to join Leicester than the Gunners. Probability: 1/10

Alexander Isak is another option. He had a fantastic season with Real Sociedad (17 goals in 34 LaLiga games) and Arsenal are tracking the Swede. Probability: 3/10