Dayot Upamecano may not be a name which you're reading a lot nowadays when it comes to Chelsea transfer rumours, but the centre-back has been previously linked with a move to Stamford Bridge.
Through the use of advanced stats, his impressive performance against Atletico Madrid in the quarter-finals of the Champions League and comparing him with our current centre-backs and reported targets, we take a look at why the 21-year-old is the ideal signing for Chelsea as we aim to better our leaky defence.
PS - Upamecano recently signed a new 3-year deal with Leipzig which greatly reduces Chelsea's chances of signing him. But if the Blues are (reportedly) willing to spend over £80M for Declan Rice, we're sure a bid in that area would tempt Leipzig.
The advanced stats
Take a look below at this graphic (taken from Footballslices), which give us a good insight into how complete a centre-back Upamecano is.
pAdj is defined by StatsBomb as: "Stands for Possession-Adjusted. Essentially, the problem with defensive rate stats is that you can't make a tackle, interception, etc when your team has the ball. Thus teams that have a lot of the ball will have under-represented defensive output compared to a team with low possession. These types of stats attempt to adjust for the opportunity."
A successful pressure is defined as winning the ball back within 5 seconds of applying pressure on the opponent (this indicates good pressing skills), whereas progressive distance measures taking/passing the ball into dangerous areas of the park where chances can be better created.
As you can see, Upamecano is a superb tackler and interceptor of the ball - this is primarily due to his positioning sense and his intelligent movement which allows him to close down spaces quicker.
Moreover, he is an excellent passer of the ball and can fit into a system which requires a ball-playing centre back. Not only does his progressive passing distance rank in the highest percentile as compared to other centre-backs, but his passes into the final third and his long balls are also deadly weapons.
The comparisons
In the images below, you can see him being compared to Virgil van Dijk (who is widely considered to be the best centre-back in the world right now), reported Chelsea targets Lewis Dunk and Declan Rice, and current starting centre-back Antonio Rudiger.
While Van Dijk is clearly superior in the air and commits fewer fouls per game, it is impressive that Upamecano is much better in pressing the ball, tackling, and the two rank close enough when it comes to passing.
Of course, the Leipzig defender is 8 years younger than Van Dijk who is enjoying the best years of his life, so these stats are really promising!
As you can see, Upamecano ranks ahead of Rudiger in winning the ball back, making tackles, intercepting, and it also takes much more to get past the 21-year-old than it does against our current centre-back.
While Rudiger ranks surprisingly high in terms of his passing numbers, we all know how prone to errors. Moreover, their passing ability is almost the same but what the Leipzig defender will give Chelsea is confidence and pressing from the back, something that Rudiger is not very good at.
Upamecano is better in the air too, and we're sure that it is an area of his game where he will improve with time.
As you can see here, the difference between Dunk and Upamecano is so much that it would be a borderline criminal offence to compare the latter with the former.
Granted that Dunk plays at Brighton where the chance to pass the ball doesn't present itself enough, but Upamecano blows him out of the water in literally every category except total aerial duels won and fouls committed per game. Barring Premier League experience, there's not a single category where Dunk holds the edge over the French international!
It is slightly unfair to compare Rice to Upamecano given that the latter operates as a defensive midfielder on many occasions. However, despite that, you can see how Upamecano is better in literally every passing stat.
Moreover, the Leipzig defender is much better when it comes to not letting his man get past him and in terms of defensive contributions, Rice cannot sit in the same room as him. Despite these major differences, Chelsea are apparently still after the £80M-rated man while links to Upamecano have died down recently.
Conclusions
- Upamecano is a better centre-back than our current starter and every one of our reported targets.
- At the age of 21, his upside is huge and he will continue to get better.
- He has experience at the top level of football and is a complete centre-back who ranks very high on both passing and defensive stats.
- However, he recently signed a contract extension with Leipzig which will make life tougher for any club that wishes to sign him.
- Regardless, if the chance is there to sign him, the Blues should take it up!
Would you like the club to sign Upamecano? Let us know your thoughts on the matter by using our blog platform to have your say!
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