Vinicius Jr new favorite for Ballon d’Or: latest odds

Vinicius Jr new favorite for Ballon d’Or: latest odds

As the 2023/24 club season nears its end, bookmakers have revised their predictions for the winner of the world's most prestigious individual football award, the Ballon d’Or. A lot has changed since the beginning of the year, and some top-tier players have significantly boosted their chances of winning the golden trophy.

At the start of 2024, the top contenders for the Ballon d'Or were Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham, and Erling Haaland, with Harry Kane also in close contention. However, there’s a new favourite in the race, according to bookies. That favourite is Real Madrid’s attack leader, Vinicius Junior.

Perhaps the lowest odds for Vinicius winning the Ballon d'Or are offered by Megapari, with chances of the Brazilian adding the France Football award to his collection priced at 2.50. This implies a 40% probability, the highest among all potential candidates.

Vinicius’ Real Madrid teammate, Jude Bellingham, is currently the runner-up, with odds of 3.50, or about a 28% chance.

Meanwhile, Mbappe, Kane, and especially Haaland have fallen behind the frontrunner. Their odds of winning are as follows:

Kylian Mbappe – 4.50

Harry Kane – 7.00

Erling Haaland – 10.00

Record Ballon d’Or holder Lionel Messi isn’t far from the top five favourites for the new award. A bet on Messi, based on his performances in MLS and Copa America, comes with odds of 15.00.

When it comes to the Ballon d’Or, dozens of great players miss out on the award. For instance, Girona’s Artem Dovbyk has a great chance to finish the season as La Liga’s best goalscorer. With 20 strikes to his name, he is ahead of Sorloth, Bellingham, Lewandowski, and Griezmann.

However, bookies rate his Ballon d’Or chances at just 38.00 or 2.5%.

Of course, there are many matches and tournaments ahead that could significantly alter the Ballon d’Or race standings: the Champions League and the Europa League finals, Copa America 2024, and the start of the new club season. 

Nevertheless, the current situation is quite clear – the highest chances for the Ballon d’Or belong to Real Madrid’s players, current ones and future ones (if Kylian Mbappe puts on a Madrid shirt in the summer). If any of the favourites manages to win a continental tournament with their national team, bookmakers’ odds for their victory will drop even lower.