What would have been the 'fair' scoreline for Chelsea v Man City? Stats-based answer

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What would have been the 'fair' scoreline for Chelsea v Man City? Stats-based answer

The Premier League game against Man City might've left Chelsea fans dejected. The title winners scored an easy early goal and kept the Blues at bay seemingly without a problem.

However, Chelsea were never out of the game and might've deserved more if it was not for their poor finishing.

According to Sofascore, Chelsea registered an xG (expected goals) figure of 1.23, more than Man City's 1.08 xG.

Moreover, Frank Lampard's team had two scoring opportunities that are qualified as 'big chances'. Man City had only one big chance - but they managed to convert it, unlike Chelsea.

The first chance for the visitors was Raheem Sterling's one-on-one with Stefan Ortega after a brilliant pass from Enzo Fernandez. Ortega saved Sterling's effort.

The second chance was Conor Gallagher's header hitting the post from a close range.

If they felt the need, Man City could've ramped up pressure on Chelsea and created more chances. But they did not which means that they hardly deserved to score more than once - while Chelsea were unlucky not to find the net.

So, both the eye test and the stats tell us that the 'fair' result of the game between Man City and Chelsea would've been a 1-1 draw.

AuthorMichael EllisSourceTribuna.com
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