The FiveThirtyEight prediction specialists see Real Madrid as the underdogs in the upcoming semi-final against Chelsea after a 1-1 draw at the Alfredo di Stefano Stadium.
According to their computer algorithm, the visitors have a 38 per cent chance to progress to the final.
The Blues' odds to win the second-leg battle are rated at 45 per cent with Los Blancos' chances to get a victory rated at 27 per cent.
The probability of Real Madrid lifting the trophy is rated at just 13 per cent.
Manchester City are seen as the likely winners of the Champions League this season. After a 2-1 win over PSG away from home, they are the heavy favourites to secure a place in the final with a 95 per cent probability.
FiveThirtyEight rate City's chances to claim the trophy at 63 per cent.
